"Aluminum" way trip, import and export big data to tell you

Recently, it took time to sort out the import and export data of China's aluminum products in the past 12 years. The seemingly boring figures record the development history of China's aluminum industry over the past 10 years, reflecting the changes in China's economy. A little summary and analysis of the data, we can also see the changes in the industrial structure and product structure of China's aluminum industry, and partly reveal the motivation for promoting the rapid development of China's aluminum industry in the past 10 years. It also helps Guanghui Aluminium Wire to predict the future development of the aluminum market.

1. A large amount of aluminum resources depend on imports.

In the past 12 years, China has imported a total of 302 million tons of bauxite, imported 61.6 million tons of alumina, and imported 23.56 million tons of scrap aluminum. In the same period, the cumulative production of primary aluminum in China reached 180 million tons. Initially, the original aluminum produced using imported resources is about 74.5 million tons, and the cumulative import dependence is 41.2%.

In the past 12 years, China’s imports of aluminum resources have accumulated a total of 70.2 billion US dollars. Among them, imported bauxite costs US$14.9 billion, imported alumina costs US$22.4 billion, and imported scrap aluminum costs US$33 billion.

2. The import volume of aluminum and aluminum processed products and aluminum products has decreased year by year.

In 2003-2014, with the development of China's aluminum smelting and aluminum processing industry, the import volume of aluminum and aluminum alloy products has generally declined. Among them, aluminum and aluminum alloys are mainly imported under the processing trade of incoming materials. Some aluminum sheets with foil and aluminum products also need to be imported, mainly for processing trade, and some foreign companies need to import high-priced processed products for tax avoidance. Some high-end aluminum materials have relatively high manufacturing costs due to insufficient domestic production volume, and also leave a small amount of market space for foreign products. At present, there are few varieties of aluminum that are insufficient in domestic production capacity and cannot be produced. The aluminum products that require further processing are more capable of manufacturing, and the import volume is already very small.

3. China's aluminum processing materials and aluminum products exports increased rapidly.

In the past 12 years, it was the golden age of China's aluminum processing materials and aluminum products exports. The rapid growth of export volume, the wide range of exports, the richness of export products and the variety of operating methods have shocked the industry.

During the 12 years from 2003 to 2014, China exported a total of 46.21 million tons of aluminum and aluminum alloys, aluminum processing materials and various aluminum products. Despite the impact of the financial crisis, the average annual growth rate of exports still reached 10.52%. In 2014, it reached a record 6.176 million tons.

Among them, the cumulative export of aluminum and aluminum alloy 10.54 million tons, aluminum plate with 9.22 million tons, aluminum profiles of 6.79 million tons, aluminum foil 4.9 million tons, aluminum doors and windows and structures 4.72 million tons, aluminum products 3.98 million tons, aluminum furniture appliances 3.1 million tons . It can be said that China's aluminum processing materials and even deep-processing products have penetrated into various market segments and corners of the world by virtue of various advantages.

(Guanghui aluminum welding wire needs to be explained that some of the above products contain the weight of other materials in some products. It is not completely aluminum alloy, and it is not meticulously converted. The data is for reference only.).

The aluminum products described above only count some of the products in Chapter 76 of the Customs Tariff, and do not include aluminum-intensive products in other chapters. For example, in 2014, the export volume of aluminum alloy wheels was as high as 790,000 tons. There are also aluminum alloys that are indirectly exported in bicycles, motorcycles, tools, lamps, home appliances, 3C products, and electromechanical equipment. Roughly estimated, China's aluminum for export in 2014 should be more than 8 million tons, or even higher.

It can be said that aluminum has not only become a raw material and processed product with a large amount of direct domestic exports, but also an important basic material supporting the entire Chinese manufacturing industry and export processing industry. Exports are indeed important horse-drawn carriages that have driven the development of China's aluminum market and aluminum industry in the past 12 years, and their importance is beyond our previous imagination.

4. China's aluminum exports have a wide range of destinations and trade flows are changing.

China's aluminum products are exported to more than 200 countries and regions. Export destinations are spreading more and more, especially in recent years, the number of aluminum exports to emerging markets and developing countries has increased significantly, including Mexico, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Nigeria, etc., and the flow has changed a lot. The high level of aluminum ingots in the foreign market has also boosted the export volume of the US and European markets.

5. China's aluminum products import and export trade surplus is huge.

In 2014, China's aluminum and aluminum alloys, aluminum processing materials, aluminum products and other products exported 22.6 billion US dollars, imports 4.578 billion US dollars, trade surplus of 18.03 billion US dollars (excluding bauxite, alumina, aluminum scrap). If we consider the export of aluminum wheels of 3.97 billion US dollars, the trade surplus will be nearly 22 billion US dollars. Even if we consider the reduction of imports of aluminum resources by 7.547 billion US dollars, the trade surplus will be 14.5 billion US dollars. Therefore, it can be said that the entire aluminum industry chain is more dependent on exports.

Through the above brief analysis of the flow of aluminum products, I personally think that at least some points are worth summarizing and analyzing:

1. A large amount of imported aluminum resources and the development of the domestic aluminum smelting industry is a road of industrial development led by private enterprises, which largely solves the resource bottleneck of China's largest period of raw material consumption intensity and strongly supports China's industrialization. Urbanization accelerates the demand for aluminum materials. This is a helpless compensation for the lack of national resource strategy and global layout in the past, and it is also a realistic choice. However, the cost and potential hidden dangers of this development model are also very large and difficult to describe. There are many options for future resource development.

2. In the past, Guanghui Aluminum Welding Wire observed that the export of aluminum products only looked at aluminum and aluminum processed materials, which led to certain limitations in market analysis. Should also pay attention to the export of aluminum products and related terminal products, which have a great correlation with the domestic aluminum market and the development of the aluminum industry.

3. The export volume of aluminum series products accounts for 22-25% of the total domestic aluminum production. If indirect exports are considered, this ratio will be higher. The development of the aluminum industry supports the development of aluminum-related industries and the export of related products. The development of related industries has also driven domestic aluminum consumption and stimulated investment in the aluminum industry chain. Therefore, the scale of the industrial chain involved in the aluminum industry and the scale of its exports are huge, and the impact and influence are large.

4. In the context of the continued global economic downturn and increased trade barriers, the continued expansion of exports on the basis of higher export scales will encounter more obstacles, export growth will slow down, and even exports will decline. The sharp increase in exports in the past few years and the second half of last year has been caused by a variety of factors. It is true that there are technological backgrounds, scale expansion and competitiveness improvement in the domestic aluminum processing industry, as well as the price difference between domestic and foreign aluminum, and the premium. Factors such as capital interest rate, exchange rate, speculative arbitrage, etc. are closely linked, showing speculative and staged characteristics, and relying more on policy support. It is not optimistic that the foreign market is prosperous and the market space left for us is huge. Exports in the future will become increasingly difficult and will not continue to grow. Therefore, aluminum processing plants, electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants and investors should all have a clear understanding, not to be blinded by the temporary market prosperity (hidden part of false prosperity), leading to market misjudgment.

5. Under the new normal of China's economy, domestic real estate investment and industrial investment will decline, which will cause the demand for construction aluminum to be at a medium-low speed, and the next stage of export will be difficult to pick up. The contradiction between overcapacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum processing will be more prominent, and a series of problems will pay for the surface, and the scene will be more ugly. Therefore, on the one hand, we must consciously and self-discipline control of new aluminum and aluminum processing capacity projects, which need to moderately reduce production and stop production and stop loss in a timely manner, bankruptcy and restructuring, on the other hand, we must actively expand aluminum applications and open up a new market blue ocean.

6. Due to the long aluminum industry chain and high degree of internationalization, industrial policy and trade policy adjustments should be carefully considered and carefully considered. Especially in the period of greater economic downturn, we must face the reality and continue to support the normal export of aluminum and aluminum products. However, in the medium and long term, we must not forget the original intention of policy formulation, hold the bottom line of policies and regulations, convey correct and clear signals to market participants, gradually adjust policies, strengthen supervision, reduce low added value, and have no added value or even added value. Exports for negative products. It is even more necessary to limit the use of policies to export aluminum products solely for the purpose of capital arbitrage. Find the best solution to maintain the overall interests of the industry and the national interest, and ensure its consistency. At the very least, don't push the excessive speculation of cross-border capital in the industry, so as not to leave more trouble to the government at this moment and in the near future, and to leave more suffering to the industrial people who adhere to this industry.

7. The export competition method with low cost and price as the important means in the past 10 years has been difficult to sustain, and it cannot open up more export space. Need to change ideas to open up the international market. Aluminum processing companies and aluminum end product manufacturers should consider the “going out” strategy, including direct investment in overseas growth markets and mergers and acquisitions in traditional markets, relying on technology, services, brands, innovation and industrial integration to win new developments. space. At the same time, Guanghui aluminum welding wire should follow the implementation of the national “one road and one belt” strategy and the opportunity of signing the multilateral investment free trade agreement, seize the opportunity to export part of the aluminum processing and manufacturing capacity, and open up a new industry “oasis”. Relevant policy orientation and organization and coordination work should also be launched. (Note: all data are from customs statistics).